Playlist Predictions: What Should We Expect from Kendrick Lamar’s Halftime Performance?

Kendrick Lamar is no stranger to collecting accolades. The rapper boasts 17 Grammy Awards, a Pulitzer Prize for Music, a Primetime Emmy Award, and a nomination for an Academy Award. He has four No. 1 albums and has landed 88 songs on the Billboard Hot 100 Chart, with five also reaching the peak position. This year, he’ll perform in the coveted slot as headliner for the halftime show at Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans, following in the footsteps of music legends like the Rolling Stones, Diana Ross, Prince, and Bruce Springsteen.  

Lamar isn’t joking when he sings he’s “not like us.” 

Breaking down the hits of the past 

Naturally, the moment the musical act for the halftime show is announced, fans begin speculating about what the setlist will look like. Conventional wisdom says audiences should expect to hear Lamar’s most popular tracks. So we decided to look back on the acts that performed in the 2020s to see how well this idea holds up by examining how many Top 10 hits made it into their shows. You can read our analysis below, or jump to our data visualizations below of halftime performers and the Billboard charts.

This is not a perfect breakdown. Singers often don’t perform a full version of a song, and often they perform songs mixed as part of medleys. In such cases, we counted only the highest-charting song by the headliner. Fans may still debate what counts as a single song versus a song that’s part of a medley. The numbers for the setlists are intended to provide a general understanding, with songs that didn’t make the Top 10 in italics. 

Super Bowl LIV 

Performers: Shakira and Jennifer Lopez 
Billboard Top 10 hits at the time: 12 (combined) 
Number of Top 10 hits in setlist: 8 out of 16 

Songs: “Dare (La La La),” “She Wolf,” “Empire,” “Ojos así,” “Whenever, Wherever,” “I Like It,” “Chantaje” Medley, “Hips Don’t Lie,” “Jenny from the Block,” “Ain’t It Funny,” “Get Right,” “Waiting for Tonight,” “Love Don’t Cost a Thing” Medley, “On the Floor,” “Let’s Get Loud” Medley, “Waka Waka (This Time for Africa)”  

We may have had a double dose of Latin pop in this performance, but JLo and Shakira combined actually had a lower number of Top 10 hits to choose from than some of their fellow headliners, which may have depressed their count. At the same time, they packed in the highest number of songs. All total, about half of the songs in their setlist were Top 10s, with an assist from Cardi B’s “I Like It.”  

Super Bowl LV 

Performer: The Weeknd 
Billboard Top 10 hits at the time: 13  
Number of Top 10 hits in setlist: 8 out of 9 

Songs: “Call Out My Name,” “Starboy,” “The Hills,” “Can’t Feel My Face,” “I Feel It Coming,” “Save Your Tears,” “Earned It,” “House Of Balloons,” “Blinding Lights”  

The Weeknd had only one more Top 10 hit to choose from than his predecessors, but he made the most of his crowd-pleasers. And he did it without any guests. Almost 90% of his choices reached the Top 10, including five going to No. 1. 

Super Bowl LVI  

Performers: Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Eminem, Mary J. Blige, Kendrick Lamar 
Billboard Top 10 hits at the time: 53 (combined) 
Number of Top 10 hits in setlist: 4 out of 11 

Songs: “The Next Episode,” “California Love,” “In da Club,” “Family Affair,” “No More Drama,” “M.A.A.D City,” “Alright,” “Forgot About Dre,” “Lose Yourself,” “I Ain’t Mad at Cha,” “Still D.R.E.” 

This won’t be Lamar’s first time performing at the Super Bowl. Despite boasting the highest combined number of chart-topping songs in their music catalogs, this hip-hop supergroup performed the lowest number of Top 10s at just 36%. And one of their notable No. 1s actually came from guest performer 50 Cent, when he took to the stage for “In da Club.”  

Super Bowl LVII  

Performer: Rihanna 
Billboard Top 10 hits at the time: 32 
Number of Top 10 hits in setlist: 10 of 13 

Songs: “What’s My Name?” “Bitch Better Have My Money,” “Where Have You Been,” “Only Girl (In the World),” “We Found Love,” “Rude Boy,” “Work,” “Wild Thoughts,” “Pour It Up,” “All of the Lights,” “Run This Town,” “Umbrella,” “Diamonds”  

Rihanna had an extensive array of options to choose from and ultimately decided to focus on her most popular songs. Discounting the deep cuts in the interludes, more than three-quarters of her songs were Top 10 hits, with every chosen song charting no lower than No. 19.  

Super Bowl LVIII  

Performer: Usher 
Billboard Top 10 hits at the time: 19 
Number of Top 10 hits in setlist: 11 of 11 

Songs: “My Way,” “Caught Up,” “Love in this Club,” “If I Ain’t Got You,” “My Boo,” “Confessions Part II,” “Burn,” “U Got It Bad,” “OMG,” “Turn Down for What,” “Yeah!”    

Usher refused to waste a second on stage for any song that wasn’t a bona fide hit. Every song in his setlist achieved Top 10 status, including seven that reached No. 1.  

Will he go the conventional route? Or are we in for some deep cuts? Whatever Lamar decides, history is being made at this year’s show for the rap genre.  

Back up your insights with data 

We live in a data-driven world. With Domo, you can swiftly transform large swaths of data, like the history of the Billboard charts, into organized data sets that are ready to be graphed and analyzed. Curious? Reach out today to learn how the Domo platform can help you find the meaning in your data.